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Actually as soon as there is interaction between your computer and the usb drive there is potential for a virus to try to infect your computer. It has been done before. They may not be very common if Microsoft has patched all foreseeable vulnerabilities in their usb protocols. But new vulnerabilities could always turn up.
Consider that windows has to acknowledge a flash drive has plugged in, scan it, then mount it. In that time even if you haven't opened the drive to view it's folders there's plenty of room for someone to try to hook a virus in some hole windows left in their usb protocol. A virtual machine would help if you're running them in parallel (like Xen, full hardware virtualization) but with software virtualization where you're running one OS on top of the other the main OS is still potentially vulnerable.
You raise an interesting thought though. We now have network attached storage, firewalls, etc.. how long before we have an anti-virus in a box that runs in a network appliance. (although some router's are beginning to include limited anti-virus software)
Just make sure you have the best anti-virus protection you can get (as in NOT the free version of AVG - I recommend eset nod32 personally) and as already said scan the drive before you do anything with it. You do run the risk of being infected but if you have a good heuristic based scanner (like Nod32) you should be protected even in the event of an undefined virus attempting to slip in via your usb connection.
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Phil,
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