General Discussions

**Learning Newbie** · 11-30-2007, 04:48 PM

The top economists lately are saying there's a 50 50 chance. I really hope it's not true, but when you stop to look at the price of gas, how severe the dollar is loosing value, the global credit crunch, how over extended most people are, foreclosures on a Great Depression scale, and China talking about abandoning the dollar while oil producers are talking about going to the Euro, 50 % sounds optimistic.

Do you think we're on the brink of a recession? Who will be effected? How long might it last? Is it time to stack for what escalates, stop being consumers, and save a little money if we want to keep enjoying life?

**CSS4Life** · 11-30-2007, 05:09 PM

I think it's inevitable. The US is certainly going down - the UK is close to the US economy and will certainly have a hard period to start off with.

I'm not a fan of the current E.U., but Wikipedia does actually say (with sources referenced) that the total GDP of the E.U. is about $1 trillion richer than the USA and we've got double the population. I think the E.U. will get stronger and wealthier in the 21st century with double the population of the USA.

**joder** · 11-30-2007, 06:43 PM

A recession is close to 100% inevitable. Just the time frame effects the chances :;

Now we have a world economy and if the U.S. goes into a recession, it will effect Europe, Asia, and others.

**serandfae** · 11-30-2007, 09:17 PM

I'll say it again, it will be a depression, not a recession, and the worst one history has seen. It's already beginning.

**fastreplies** · 11-30-2007, 09:59 PM

What is absolutely puzzling in the same time while Economy is crumbling Stock Marked
is gaining more then 300 points.

I'll say yes. The biggest victims going to be Countries without Oil and as long Bush
is in the Office, I don't see things will get any better.

fastreplies

**KML9870** · 11-30-2007, 11:06 PM

Bush will be out of office next year - no choice in the matter. But that isn't going to save us either. I'm more in line with Tim though - I think a major depression is on the way. What can we do about it, that's the million dollar question. I personally don't have a pile of money laying around to stockpile supplies.

**joder** · 11:43 PM

I will go on record as saying I don't think there will be a depression. Some people who thought everything was going to be rosy forever and they could get a loan that would always have a low rate will suffer. It's unfortunate but they will move into another house and move on. As a consequence, the housing market will suffer but other areas of the economy are going well.

The biggest threat is not moving away from oil consumption fast enough. With increased consumption worldwide, there is not enough. Prices will continue to go up. The car companies are starting to build hybrids and hopefully enough people will buy them where more will be invested to make them better and widely used.

**CSS4Life** · 12-01-2007, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joder

The car companies are starting to build hybrids and hopefully enough people will buy them where more will be invested to make them better and widely used.

Don't you mean oil companies? The insanely, unjustly rich oil companies regularly buy out any competition they might get to ensure they keep a monopoly on the car market, the same as Microsoft has on the computer market.

As soon as oil runs out (40 years or so) or gets too expensive, they'll start either selling the patents they've got to manufacturers or even start their own car companies.

While there are cars that run on water, no doubt that if this becomes widespread, a tax on water will be introduced.

In response to the original post about a recession, I think the major problem with the US and the West in general today is the over-reliance on China and the East. There's a massive trade deficit in the West because we love importing things cheaply and export far less ourselves.

In my opinion, to combat all of this, the 21st century may become a century of massive superpowers. Forget the USA as a superpower on it's own - to aid with trade and power, there may well be a North American Union, similar to the European Union to rival China and the East. Things may get even more absurd if an East Asian Union appears - i.e. between India and China, or China and Russia. It'll probably take a long time for this to happen but we're probably going to eventually end up with a one world government towards the end of the century or into the next century.

Why? Take a look at the past century - things have changed so dramatically. We began with Britain and France as the major world players, then came World War 1 and World War 2 and we declined. The USA and the USSR took over. The USSR fell and the USA was the only superpower. But now China and the EU are becoming ever more powerful and the USA is declining. The past century has proven that big unions or countries are the only ones that remain players on the global stage so more and more countries will join up as unions to attain this strength.

Phew - that was a long rant!

**joder** · 12-01-2007, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whym

Don't you mean oil companies? The insanely, unjustly rich oil companies regularly buy out any competition they might get to ensure they keep a monopoly on the car market, the same as Microsoft has on the computer market.

Don't know how you got the oil companies out of that. Car companies are their own entities and have pressure from competition with other car companies, their investors, and the public.

Many oil companies are investing, not in cars, but in other energy technologies such as biofuels. But biofuels are just as bad as oil since they are bulldozing forests to make room to grow the crops to produce the fuels.

There are some exciting advances in solar and wind power that need to be invested in. We need true renewable energy resources. This is what the oil companies will oppose since it will cut in to consumer dependence on a corporation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by whym

Phew - that was a long rant!

Sure was

Just kidding.

**CSS4Life** · 12-01-2007, 01:25 PM

I'm fairly sure that oil companies are purchasing technologies that would compete with them - a typical capitalist tactic. Oil companies will stay rich long after oil has ran out

**ForrestCroce** · 12-01-2007, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fastreplies

What is absolutely puzzling in the same time while Economy is crumbling Stock Marked
is gaining more then 300 points.

Wealth is being polarized ... the bottom of the economic scale is stagnating. Salaries at the bottom aren't keeping pace with inflation, while ceos are enjoying record earnings. The average is skewed, and this gives a bit of false confidence ... the stock market is a confidence game.

Gas being expensive has very little to do with collusion among the oil companies. There's a finite supply of the stuff, and growing demand. Oil is traded on the open global market, like anything else ... remember a couple of years ago when cnooc - the Chinese National Off-shore Oil Corporation - offered a few billion more Texaco than any American company could muster? The deal was blocked on security grounds, but it means a lot of people around the world ... two rising economies in particular ... need energy to fuel their growth. They're willing and able to pay as much as anyone else for the same supply. It's only natural that the price would sky rocket.