I have a max bid of .03p on all my keywords of a new campaign. Only one of them shows that "Bid is below first page bid estimate of xxx" message, but at the same time the average position is showing as 2.0 for that keyword, which is the highest position of all my keywords.

What's going on here? The first page bid estimate hasn't changed since I launched the campaign yesterday. It seems like nonsense - or is it just google trying to get me to bid more cash?

Where your ad shows depends on more than just the bid. You could be the highest bidder and still not show up #1 every time. Your overall budget, quality score, and click through rate will also determine where your ad appears.

If you're seeing 2 as the average position for a keyword then you're averaging position #2 on page #1 one. Sometimes you might be the first ad shown and sometimes you might be the third ad shown.

I don't think it's Google trying to get more cash from you, rather it's more goes into which ad shows where than the bid alone.

Thanks. It wasn't an average as there had only been 1 impression at that point. I just don't get why google is trying to tell me that my ad won't appear on the first page for that keyword (when I hover over the icon thing it says "active - no- your ad won't appear on the first page), but the only time it has appeared it was no.2? Well I'm going to leave the bid as 3p and see what happens with it!

it must have appeared as number 2 before it got "zapped" to the level it's now at.
don't worry. time is the best way to handle it, not bid increases. although 4p wouldn't hurt.

nb google do try to encourage people to hand over lots of dosh but they also can be relied on in this way - their system is so harcore (or even hardcore if you're not in the fareast), so tough, that if you are resilient, patient and intelligent, they'll always sell you clicks at a total bargain price. They're google - they've got the quality, they've got the volume - they're the best people to get the best price from - so just be tough and don't take their advice when they say things like "why don't you give us more money"!

Before my current experiments started working I had taken their advice and was paying SIX TIMES as much for a click as I currently do! No wonder I didn't figure out where the profit was until recently.