Posts: 5,938
Name: Adam for web page design, not program
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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I don't think you're overthinking it at all. The very nature of PPC leaves it susceptible to click fraud. I tend to avoid it like the plague as a result (that and I don't like the idea of paying for traffic that I can obtain organically for free.)
A few things that I would do to avoid any PPC fraud:
1) Create a script that would track the PPC clicks by some form of querystring (e.g. ref=adwords) and log IP addresses, dates, times and match them against the PPC advertiser's records. Possibly track user behaviour as well (time spent on site, etc.)
2) Consider Tier 2 PPC engines. It's a lot less likely that click fraud is going to occur if the click-through value is only a penny or a nickel than it is if the click-through value were a dollar.
3) Select phrases a competitor isn't likely to guess at. Besides being things your competitors won't click on, they won't be as likely to outbid you or force your bid to be higher, either.
4) Be cautious of PPC ad networks/publisher networks. Because these types of PPC ads (e.g. Adwords) show up on publisher sites as well as major sites, the likelihood of click fraud is increased since it's of benefit to the publisher as well as a potential competitor.
Again, this comes from someone who has never played (nor has had to play) the PPC game. This is just what I would do if I were in your hypothetical shoes.
Mind you, all of this leads to a counter-question, John. You're obviously a pretty smart guy and from the sounds of it more than capable of building a decent website and, with the advice you've seen here and given yourself, attracting organic traffic with it. Why go the PPC spike route?
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