Since the invasion of Iraq, America has plunged into debt. Under Bush's "stewardship," America's debt has gone from about $6 Trillion to $9.5 Trillion, after a decrease throughout the second half of the 1990s. While we paid down the debt, we experienced great prosperity - now that we've tried to double the debt, the value of our dollar has fallen greatly.

Shockingly (to the White House), a weak dollar makes gasoline more expensive.

The Price of Gasoline


US National Debt


Apart from the cost to the nation (debt, weakened trade, loss of stature around the world, inability to repair aging infrastructure, inability to deal with Katrina and myriad other storms, general lack of security for the populace) as a whole, the end result of the Iraq adventure has been disastrous for ordinary Americans.

The Value of the Dollar


We can see the correlation between the value of the dollar, and the amount of gasoline a single dollar buys. We can also see the results of speculation about supply shocks - which wars like the ongoing one in Iraq produce.



Measured in gold, the price of oil hasn't changed dramatically


Of course the price of gasoline is going up the world over - including Europe, with its Euro (which is outpacing the dollar). Speculation over supply hurts everybody, not just the Americans. China and India coming online aren't trivial, either. However, Bush Co has many Americans convinced that these nascent powers are the only reason for our pain at the pumps (typical Sino bashing), cleverly sweeping the falling dollar under the rug of public awareness.

China and India's demand for gas is largely beyond the (direct) control of US policy. Our debt, and the value of the dollar as a result, are very much within our power to influence.

Disrupting the commodities being traded, and initiating a north american shelf energy exploration and exploitation project would put a decent dent in the price. I have the engineers for the job, so when you want to dig your back yard for oil, give me a shout.

haha

Same happening here in the UK. It's all a big game, don't worry about the reasons why and the causes viewed in true economic terms - you'll never know the truth. Just try and survive.

Originally Posted by PHP4me

It's all a big game, don't worry about the reasons why and the causes viewed in true economic terms - you'll never know the truth.

Around these parts, we make the truth up as we need to.

Originally Posted by PHP4me

Same happening here in the UK. It's all a big game, don't worry about the reasons why and the causes viewed in true economic terms - you'll never know the truth. Just try and survive.

How can you possible hope to survive it if no one understands the reasons and just lets everything keep going in the same direction?

If Congress can get around this partisan bickering with regard to oil we might get somewhere. The Dems have proposed tapping our strategic oil reserves, and it's about time someone caught the clue to do that. The Republicans are almost universally on a "we gotta drill" fest, which does nothing in the here and now. I say kick all of 'em in the collective posterior to enact a comprehensive policy that taps our strategic reserves but uses that as a means of "aggressive negotiation" with state sponsors of terror, gets our domestic refineries back up and running, and looks at new domestic oil sources (yes, drilling). The Dems have got to get off the rabid alternative fuel kick; it's just as far off as they accuse looking for drilling sites as being, if not more so. It's necessary, but not for the immediate present.

tim

Originally Posted by serandfae

If Congress can get around this partisan bickering with regard to oil we might get somewhere. The Dems have proposed tapping our strategic oil reserves, and it's about time someone caught the clue to do that.

I got mixed feelings on that. You think gas is in short supply now, wait till Israel starts dropping bombs on Iran next month. I do think we need to put those no-bid oil contracts to work and moving oil into the U.S. from Iraq. Its not like the price in credibility hasn't already been paid.

The Dems have got to get off the rabid alternative fuel kick; it's just as far off as they accuse looking for drilling sites as being, if not more so. It's necessary, but not for the immediate present.

tim

Again, mixed feelings. If you are a big believer in Global Warming, or just downright hate the idea of sending young Americans to fight in middle eastern deserts to protect U.S. national interests(OIL), IMO there is no faster way to get off oil than with massive amount of free market revenues thrown at alternative energy when gas is $8 a gallon. I know I know, this is the mantra Al Gore and many left wing lunatics have been preaching for some time, but it just so happens to be true.

On the other hand, since fuel costs are a basic part of almost every product we buy, consume, drive, or use in any way, rising fuel costs mean inflation. Our debt laden, non-existent credit economy is probably not in the best condition to choke down a prolonged period of stagflation. A worldwide economic collapse would do nothing to further the cause of alternative energy, and would likely spark gas riots and a variety of new conflicts around the planet.

Like you said, right about now, "all of the above" is probably a good policy. We've already stopped shipping oil to the strategic reserves and perhaps some small withdrawals would not be a bad thing. Offshore and Anwar drilling could begin providing relief within five years. At the current cost of gas, the free markets are already bringing alternative fuels for transportation into the mainstream. So long as gas prices don't go too much over 5$ a gallon, and really the low to mid 4s, alternative energy will remain an attractive investment without a total economic collapse. Massive non-OPEC no bid oil contracts with Iraq should shore us up for the short term. Exxon-Mobil.... looking out for you.

Originally Posted by cbwm

I got mixed feelings on that. You think gas is in short supply now, wait till Israel starts dropping bombs on Iran next month. I do think we need to put those no-bid oil contracts to work and moving oil into the U.S. from Iraq. Its not like the price in credibility hasn't already been paid.

That's specifically why we need to get our domestic refineries back up and running. Yeah, we can import from Iraq, but we need to be in a strategic position to choke Iran economically. For that matter, rather than pump billions into our limp noodle "ally" Pakistan's military as a thank you for not going nuclear and for not doing one ******** thing about harboring Al Qaeda in their tribal areas (thanks ever so much!) we need to cut them off cold across the board until they comply and start flushing out the vermin. You need a clear mandate and teeth to back it up to win a war. Seems our CIC wants to kiss *** rather than kick it on the other front, and it's costing the lives of our troops needlessly in the process. IOW, the carrot's not working, time for the stick.

Originally Posted by cbwm

Like you said, right about now, "all of the above" is probably a good policy. We've already stopped shipping oil to the strategic reserves and perhaps some small withdrawals would not be a bad thing. Offshore and Anwar drilling could begin providing relief within five years. At the current cost of gas, the free markets are already bringing alternative fuels for transportation into the mainstream. So long as gas prices don't go too much over 5$ a gallon, and really the low to mid 4s, alternative energy will remain an attractive investment without a total economic collapse. Massive non-OPEC no bid oil contracts with Iraq should shore us up for the short term. Exxon-Mobil.... looking out for you.

Whether oil comes from Iraq, the strategic reserves or drilling, our strategic position still hinges upon our domestic refineries. That must be priority one, IMHO.

Getting back to the OP, the weak dollar argument doesn't account for record profits for the major petroleum marketers of late. Think about the fact that any time the feds or any of the states gave a tax holiday for gas the end price to the consumer dropped but a pittance. The whole story lies in the price of oil, yes, trade deficits and the weak dollar, and profiteering on the part of petroleum marketers. You can't hinge it on just the weak dollar.

tim

Originally Posted by serandfae

You can't hinge it on just the weak dollar.

And I didn't try. The crumbling dollar is one reason among several, one that's conveniently escaped much attention, and it's one of the factors we have the most control over, immediately.

Originally Posted by cbwm

wait till Israel starts dropping bombs on Iran next month.

As exciting as your end of the world super war fantasy (The Rapture?) is, we need to get Gee Dub out of the White House so that we can stop basing our policy on magical wishful thinking and truthiness. In a month when Israel and Iran are still swearing at each other, there's zero chance cbwm will acknowledge another failed prediction. The only way Israel is going after Iran is with US permission and full backing. More than anything else, Israel wants stability - it's their most immediate need. Unlike cbwm and the neocons, the Israelis are too smart to blow themselves up to spite their enemy, or for some death fantasy.

Originally Posted by serandfae

That's specifically why we need to get our domestic refineries back up and running.

True enough. I remember when Katrina threatened to wipe out all those refineries, there was a panic on the market because, even if we are swimming in oil, if we don't have the refining capacity to put more on the market, the price of gas will still be high. It strikes me as odd that we haven't licensed a new nuclear reactor in almost 30 years and probably just about as long for refineries. Did nobody think the demand for energy would go up?

Originally Posted by serandfae

For that matter, rather than pump billions into our limp noodle "ally" Pakistan's military as a thank you for not going nuclear and for not doing one ******** thing about harboring Al Qaeda in their tribal areas (thanks ever so much!) we need to cut them off cold across the board until they comply and start flushing out the vermin.

Agreed. Apparently, Bhutto was going to let the U.S. operate with some level of impunity in the uncontrolled tribal areas of Pakistan where Al Queda is KNOWN to be fully operational. The problem is, with all the dicks in NATO, they don't have a set of nuts between em. This is a world issue, not a U.S. issue, yet somehow, and as usual, its the U.S.'s problem and we are expected to pick up the tab in blood and treasure. It makes for great liberal fodder afterwards where they can fall back and accuse the U.S. in meddling in everyone else affairs.

Originally Posted by Learning Newbie

In a month when Israel and Iran are still swearing at each other, there's zero chance cbwm will acknowledge another failed prediction. The only way Israel is going after Iran is with US permission and full backing. More than anything else, Israel wants stability - it's their most immediate need. Unlike cbwm and the neocons, the Israelis are too smart to blow themselves up to spite their enemy, or for some death fantasy.

I specialize in failed predictions . That said, Israel has the U.S.'s full support and backing right now. Iran is currently on a two week deadline with 6 nations to halt enrichment or face more sanctions. For Israel, the stakes are much higher. Allowing Iran to get a bomb assures the death of over a million Israeli's, which is something I think they would try to prevent at any cost, regardless of the political fallout or catostrophic rise in Oil. If anything, it makes more sense to do it while Bush is still in office, rather than wait for Obama. Bush will support the action, which means Obama inherits it.

I believe that there used to be 4$ to the Pound not so long ago; and I think Americans forget they have some of the world's cheapest petrol (gasoline). Ours is now falling slightly, but it hit £1.19 / litre (2.40$). As for the economy, the Fed can cut rates. In the UK, where inflation is at least 4%, probably about 7% actually, the Bank of England can't. No recession though.

Interestingly, the fed cutting rates is almost directly tied to the weak dollar. When the fed stops cutting rates, the dollar will strengthen.

Your right about the feds with the rates... Dirty rats

Originally Posted by eautocad

Your right about the feds with the rates... Dirty rats

What has John Bolton to do with the Feds? That guy is a saint, and one of the few sane people in Washington!

We could just drill in the US, but that makes to much sense.

^^ Yeah it makes a ton of sense to drill in the U.S then reap the benefits of that "short term" plan decades from now...

What has John Bolton to do with the Feds? That guy is a saint, and one of the few sane people in Washington!

A saint?

First of all, being a "saint" is inhumane.

Secondly, Bolton is closer to a taint.

Originally Posted by highanddry

^^ Yeah it makes a ton of sense to drill in the U.S then reap the benefits of that "short term" plan decades from now...

Couldn't agree more. Long term planning for a guaranteed way to get us out of the pickle we are currently in sounds like foolishness.

Originally Posted by highanddry

A saint?

First of all, being a "saint" is inhumane.

Secondly, Bolton is closer to a taint.

Maybe saint is the wrong word. At least he isn't naive /cough Obama. By the way, what up with Obama's prayer in the western wall. "Protect my family and me." What about Country and Allies? Looks like the self centered elitist shoe fits. When he wrote the prayer, I wonder if he felt he was pathetically clinging to religion or antipathy to people people who aren't like him. My money says the entire exposure of his note to the press was a sham setup by his own campaign to unite his base against those who would step between him and his words to god. I'm cryin here.

^^ Don't get it twisted around... All candidates play the religion card, the race is a game of money, formalities and impressions...

Can you imagine a politician being a straightforward athiest and getting support in this country? No, I don't think that's a rule you can break in this game.

Now to the point of the prayer itself. Sigh. It is so private and personal that it is kind of disgusting to even analyze it.

For those who don't know here is the prayer Obama wrote and was stolen for publication.

"Lord--Protect my family and me. Forgive me my sins, and help me guard against pride and despair. Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just. And make me an instrument of your will."

.. That is as good of a prayer as I've ever heard, does he have to pray for the country, our "allies" the democratic party etc to have a good prayer?

Besides, I would be far more worried about him being "An instrument of God's will." We could have a global genocidal flooding, or the massacre of innocent children or any of the other jealous, spiteful, aggressive and archaic things "God" does in the old testament.

in my country increasing of prices is such a trendy trend sigh. its getting darker and bleaker everyday.

The past few days it has been lowering, I hope its trend.