SEM Tycoon

**Josh P** · 08-26-2006, 11:18 PM

So I'm sitting here thinking... Wouldn't it be nice if I had the perfect stat tracking app? Using simple math, you could easyily write a function to predict and definitely analyze your traffic as well as earnings. It would be very easy to predict also.
For instance... I would want when my visitors came.. I'm not talking what day, I mean literally down to the second. Then I would want how long they stayed on my site, where they went, if their highschool won tonights ball game, etc. Now, these I all have, but then there are other variables that also come into play. Day of week, time of year (season), holiday, the weather outside, how a users day went, etc. In math, the more variables you have in a prediction equation, the more accurate it will be... basically you approach inifity (or perfection) but can never get there. If I had all that, I could pretty much tell you down to the second/minute how much I'd make. I love math, it's a shame I don't have all of that, because I know it would be very useful.
Predictions have been around for a while, and they're a huge business (think: insurance companies paying a CRAP load to top Math majors for telling them who will have a crash.)

Do any of you use functions / equations to predict or help analyze your websites? I'll start sharing some of mine later (once I compile them, lol), but do share...

**Madlener** · 08-27-2006, 12:02 AM

Generally, correct assumptions. I'm not sure how "down to the minute" you can get, but anything would be better then looking at basic trend data. I'm writing an 'engagement factor' for measuring average user engagement which should be out in October. I'd be open to exchange theories.

**Josh P** · 08-27-2006, 12:05 AM

sounds like fun, mine is dealing with a very specific type of traffic, but once I get it all worked out I'll send it on over.

**imported_mattd** · 08-27-2006, 10:28 AM

It depends how many people you have using your site. If you've got tens or hundreds of thousands visiting each day then you can probably get pretty accurate with some stats although doubt you could pinpoint exact seconds and who that person is (i.e. iof they have had a good or bad day or not) and so on.

**Josh P** · 08-27-2006, 02:27 PM

well yea... the main thing is just getting so much data that you can average it all out and know certain things.

**Bookworm-SEO** · 08-31-2006, 12:49 AM

It's not directly related, but looking at site logs, I've found a few things that allow me to predict how reactions will go:
1) Blogging in the morning means 9am-work-slackers browse my site
2) Updating my Blogger site means Google will send me traffic. Again, more in the morning and during "living hours" (e.g. 9-6ish, eastern).
3) Excerpts will increase my page-views, regardless of time of day
4) Wikipedia and blog aggregator visitors BOUNCE like rubber balls. So I know I need to customize the posts once they're off my front page to cut the bounce rates. I've tried subtitles so far with a little success ... I expect to start welcome messages soon.

The point being, it's ideal to predict who/what/where when your traffic will be, and how their day is going, but looking at what/how they've behaved to date will tell you a lot of actionable stuff.

**Ed_bloggo** · 08-31-2006, 01:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josh P

So I'm sitting here thinking... Wouldn't it be nice if I had the perfect stat tracking app? Using simple math, you could easyily write a function to predict and definitely analyze your traffic as well as earnings. It would be very easy to predict also.
For instance... I would want when my visitors came.. I'm not talking what day, I mean literally down to the second. Then I would want how long they stayed on my site, where they went, if their highschool won tonights ball game, etc. Now, these I all have, but then there are other variables that also come into play. Day of week, time of year (season), holiday, the weather outside, how a users day went, etc. In math, the more variables you have in a prediction equation, the more accurate it will be... basically you approach inifity (or perfection) but can never get there. If I had all that, I could pretty much tell you down to the second/minute how much I'd make. I love math, it's a shame I don't have all of that, because I know it would be very useful.
Predictions have been around for a while, and they're a huge business (think: insurance companies paying a CRAP load to top Math majors for telling them who will have a crash.)

Do any of you use functions / equations to predict or help analyze your websites? I'll start sharing some of mine later (once I compile them, lol), but do share...

It seems you are all over the map here. Im sure there are statisitcal programs for tracking and predicting traffic based on functions on the marketplace. Its not like this is a new concept.

**Lucas3677** · 08-31-2006, 02:03 AM

Google Analytics anyone? They tell you the average time each user spent on a page, and common pathways users navigate through. You can also connect it with your Adsense or AdWords account to calculate your ROI and numerous other monetary statistics.