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Let's take an incredibly simplistic view of toolbar PR and links just because I feel friendly today..
All of the links on the internet add up to the number "1".. The Google Toolbar PR that you see is some incremental representation of that number "1" that really has no value other than to sell text links on your website to rubes that think it matters..
So, the internet have all these links and you have a few and your toolbar PR is "3".. Now you don't get any new links at all for several months.. But the rest of the internet creates millions more links.. But, since all links always total up to the number "1", each link is now worth slightly less than it was before.. And since you didn't change anything, you didn't gain any new links, etc., your PR is now worth less than it was before, and your PR drops.. No big deal, everyone's did, you just happened to be near the edge and could actually see the tick as it fell from one number to the next..
Another possibility is that the links you had got devalued from some reason.. Maybe you had a couple of really good links pointing to your site but the owner of the link took it away.. Or Google came in and devalued his outbound link to you.. Again, through no action of your own, your PR will drop in the toolbar..
All that said, the important question to ask here is not, why did my PR drop, but did my rankings or traffic drop??
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